Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 53241.953146 56441.511559 59649.385724 63104.285242 66717.454025 70381.950476 74376.847989
2024-10-06 48539.089506 53451.816316 58523.986453 64143.592066 70186.839832 76481.744966 83525.938267
2024-10-13 44922.400669 50984.475932 57389.602108 64643.965373 72614.076976 81085.923246 90753.865893
2024-10-20 41842.996249 48722.527915 56134.633829 64685.421502 74247.890853 84582.516069 96565.629851
2024-10-27 39167.337164 46658.181827 54869.481259 64496.360737 75429.464816 87415.836441 101505.034143
2024-11-03 37643.566950 45748.332341 54767.565798 65490.595077 77831.125187 91527.049066 107813.191662
2024-11-10 36188.645056 44803.463448 54524.823222 66231.952277 79868.918908 95172.424192 113561.080036
2024-11-17 34690.306029 43711.024677 54025.408671 66597.407667 81408.077326 98200.720531 118574.183241
2024-11-24 33143.444429 42475.461711 53281.465799 66605.002268 82469.907365 100633.338871 122870.165687
2024-12-01 31904.932179 41544.460142 52839.425140 66915.754943 83844.016159 103399.060519 127539.176202
2024-12-08 30634.420184 40513.441911 52222.767527 66967.124016 84868.391802 105725.094592 131676.406335
2024-12-15 29909.461560 40116.665223 52341.681976 67879.661867 86906.484768 109244.814707 137236.097453
2024-12-22 28711.374386 39097.193966 51675.570699 67822.226220 87774.377749 111388.965731 141199.383974
2024-12-29 28147.436193 38854.660908 51952.534309 68915.682273 90046.132947 115234.543755 147239.898975
2025-01-05 27356.328757 38287.179271 51794.302232 69444.036205 91607.655172 118216.544091 152246.917286
2025-01-12 26393.588887 37459.633277 51273.986442 69487.611624 92544.623464 120423.473542 156308.729257
2025-01-19 25380.319073 36528.056302 50586.501576 69287.331949 93150.460926 122206.376254 159843.996340
2025-01-26 24972.770040 36378.717193 50889.541330 70340.119531 95329.880769 125939.631333 165803.941273
2025-02-02 24476.000139 36089.362462 50994.090479 71125.026619 97164.399401 129248.340291 171254.667886
2025-02-09 23841.464809 35590.569215 50804.525785 71511.914274 98480.429964 131906.869753 175904.377196
2025-02-16 23086.351288 34901.522308 50340.821242 71519.953890 99294.187909 133925.973930 179754.800380
2025-02-23 22495.368946 34418.138054 50132.691852 71848.911953 100512.937742 136455.040059 184256.226290
2025-03-02 21826.884187 33804.888242 49730.653508 71903.288808 101361.654722 138508.140392 188159.018923